Merchants in black markets reject bolivianos outright, currency collapse accelerates.

A month after Bolivia abandoned the fixed exchange rate it had held for fifteen years, the dollar has not only failed to stabilize — it has reached Bs 11 on the official market, while on the parallel market vendors are beginning to refuse bolivianos outright. That image — the national currency being turned away in everyday transactions — captures the state of the Bolivian economy today more eloquently than any statistic.

The transition to a flexible exchange rate, formalized just a month ago through Ministerial Resolution No. 245, was framed by the government of President Andrés Rodolfo Paz as an inevitable step toward economic honesty after years of unsustainable subsidies and international reserves that have collapsed by more than ten billion dollars since 2014. The Instituto Boliviano de Comercio Exterior shares that diagnosis: the flexible regime, the IBCE says, "brings honesty to the economy," but it warns that the challenge now is to attract the dollars the country desperately needs. The problem is that, a month after the transition, exchange-rate pressure has not eased. According to El Deber, the exchange rate climbed from Bs 11.54 to Bs 11.80 in a matter of days, before Economy Minister José Gabriel Espinoza stepped in to promise that the dollar would stabilize "below Bs 11 in the coming days." Samuel Doria Medina, a heavyweight figure in Bolivian business, set a higher ceiling: he told Los Tiempos that it is "impossible" for the dollar to reach Bs 15, and that its equilibrium point will lie closer to Bs 12. Between the official promise and the business projection, the market is still hunting for its own level.

What compounds the situation is that the currency crisis does not operate in a vacuum: it coincides with a diesel shortage that has grounded 80% of interdepartmental buses, threatens the soybean harvest and planting cycle — one of the country's export pillars — and has pushed the heavy-transport sector to sharpen its pressure on the government. YPFB began unloading 48 million liters of diesel at the port of Arica, an operation the government attributes to earlier logistical difficulties at that same Chilean port, but the fuel's arrival has not dispelled the accumulated pressure. Drivers, according to Opinión Bolivia, will wait for the end of the state of emergency before defining their protest measures, and the civic committees have called for mass mobilizations. The Economy Minister acknowledged that the blockades "complicate the recovery and erode employment," while industrialists warn that the blockades "only sink the economy" and that the fuel subsidy must not return.

The buildup of pressures has led the business community to convene an extraordinary national economic summit — held in Cochabamba with follow-on sessions in La Paz — where a list of demands to the government was drafted, including proposals such as a reactivation fund and a family stipend. The figures they presented were stark: Cochabamba projects an economic contraction of 4.15% for 2026, with formal employment covering barely 14.6% of the active population. At the national level, various estimates point to a contraction of between 0.7% and 1% for the current year, with 90% of micro and small enterprises shutting down under the cumulative impact of the crisis. Informal employment grew by a full percentage point in the first half alone, according to the Instituto Nacional de Estadística. Cochabamba also registers cumulative inflation of 5.28%, above the national average, in a context where Bolivia could close 2026 with inflation as high as 17%, according to projections cited by eju.tv.

Against this backdrop, the Paz government is trying to anchor expectations in international financial backing. CAF sealed a strategic alliance with Bolivia worth $3.1 billion, the IDB has committed sums ranging between €4.1 billion and €4.5 billion depending on the source, and the government confirmed an agreement with the IMF — although without detailing its exact terms. Bolivia also launched the second phase of the return of dollar deposits held within the financial system, enabling withdrawals of up to $3,000, in what represents the gradual dismantling of the bank corralito. The Central Bank also approved a rule allowing banks to operate in cryptocurrencies given the scarcity of foreign exchange — one more sign of just how far the emergency monetary engineering has gone.

On the diplomatic front, Foreign Minister Rodrigo Paz traveled to Lima to push an integration agenda with Peru centered on port, rail and road logistics, with the port of Ilo as the linchpin. Paz did not skimp on rhetoric: he declared that "Bolivia has never had such an aggressive policy with Peru to generate economic activity." At the same time, former president Evo Morales attacked the flexible exchange rate as a "disguised devaluation," while the parliamentary commission investigating the "junk gasoline" case assigned responsibility to the two most recent administrations, having detected systematic failures in controls — a case in which former Hydrocarbons Minister Mauricio Medinaceli remains detained while the Public Prosecutor's Office defines his procedural status.

In the coming days, markets will be watching whether the exchange rate actually converges toward the Bs 11 promised by Minister Espinoza or continues its climb; whether the diesel unloaded at Arica arrives fast enough to relieve the productive sector before heavy transport and civic groups radicalize their protests; and whether the terms of the IMF agreement — still not fully disclosed — include adjustment demands that the government has promised will not affect "the poorest." The Bolivian economy, in the words of analyst Karl Isakson cited by El Deber, faces a precise vicious circle: "uncertainty blocks investment and that stalls the economy." Breaking that circle, with elections on the horizon and the economy on political pause, will be the ultimate test for the Paz government.

**YPFB (state-owned, unlisted)** — Bolivia's state oil company began unloading 48 million liters of diesel at the port of Arica, Chile, in an attempt to ease the shortage paralyzing 80% of interdepartmental transport and threatening the soybean harvest; the operation exposes Bolivia's structural dependence on fuel imports at a time when its oil production has fallen to 30-year lows.

**Banco de Desarrollo Productivo (state-owned, unlisted)** — Jorge Velasco took over the presidency of the institution amid the dollar liquidity crisis, in a leadership change the government frames within its strategy of rebuilding the financial system; the entity is key to channeling agricultural credits approved for up to $546 million aimed at sustaining the soybean, rice and corn sectors under exchange-rate pressure.