Central bank's 135-day dollar buying streak snaps as energy demand absorbs supply.

The Central Bank on Tuesday broke a 135-session buying streak, refraining for the first time since January 2 from purchasing dollars in the foreign exchange market — and it did so just one day after Kristalina Georgieva publicly told Santiago Bausili, with her finger raised: "Keep buying." The irony of the timing distilled into a single session the central tension running through Argentina's economic program: the BCRA accumulates dollars with determination and effectiveness when the context allows, but the room to do so is not unlimited, and markets know it.

The monetary authority explained that it did not intervene because the energy sector concentrated heavy purchases in the market, absorbing available supply. The wholesale dollar closed at $1,498, one peso from the psychological threshold of $1,500, with the blue at $1,570 and the official retail rate at $1,520 at Banco Nación, all at nominal highs. The BCRA turned to the futures market to sell positions and thus contain upward pressure, a clear signal that the government considers it politically inconvenient for the exchange rate to breach that barrier before the maturity of the D31L6 note on July 31. JP Morgan's country risk indicator reached 450 basis points during the morning before closing at 441, the highest level since mid-June.

The break in the buying streak occurs against a backdrop of contradictory signals the market has spent weeks trying to decipher. Statements last week by presidential spokesperson Adrián Ravier, when he ventured a dollar "at $1,700 or $1,800 in the coming months," generated noise that the economic team itself had to walk back: the priority is disinflation, and validating a significant exchange rate jump contradicts that objective. Ravier's remark and the BCRA's subsequent decision not to buy exposed, according to several analysts, a lack of coordination within the official framework itself. In 2026, the official exchange rate has risen just 3% in nominal terms, well below accumulated inflation of around 18%, implying a persistently appreciated real dollar.

Behind the day's currency noise unfolded a financial session of high political and symbolic significance: Georgieva's two-day visit left messages the government received with relief. The IMF chief ruled out that Argentina would need additional financing in 2027, praised the accumulation of reserves — the BCRA has bought some $13 billion so far this year — and used her visit to Loma Campana, YPF's flagship field in Vaca Muerta, to send a signal that goes beyond protocol: the IMF views Patagonia's oil and gas as the backbone of Argentina's repayment capacity, which maintains exposure to the organism of around $57.7 billion, equivalent to 34.6% of the Fund's entire active portfolio. The figure is nearly four times that of Ukraine, the second-largest debtor. In that context, Vaca Muerta is not an energy symbol but the real collateral of an agreement of historic dimensions.

The fact that crude oil displaced soybean meal and corn as Argentina's leading export product in the first half of 2026, with revenues of $4.693 billion and a year-on-year increase of 47.7%, reinforces that reading. Argentina is undergoing a structural transformation of its export matrix that the Argentina Grande institute itself documented with Indec data: Neuquén, Catamarca, Jujuy, Salta and San Juan — provinces that fifteen years ago contributed a marginal fraction — today account for a growing share of the foreign currency entering the country. The first-half trade surplus exceeded $13.9 billion, with total exports of nearly $50 billion, a historic record. Nevertheless, the IMF, through the voice of Héctor Torres, a former executive director at the organism, warned about the risk of "Dutch disease": an export bonanza that appreciates the currency and erodes industrial competitiveness, a phenomenon the UIA has already documented with a 3% industrial decline in the first half and a 1.8% year-on-year drop in June.

That is precisely the paradox the Fundación Pensar report — the think tank linked to the PRO — lays out with surgical precision: "The numbers improve faster than daily life." Consumer confidence fell 6.5% in July according to Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, accumulating a 21.5% contraction since late 2025. Supermarket sales have posted five consecutive year-on-year declines. Textile apparel fell 6.9% in units during the third bimester. Fuel consumption registered its fifth consecutive year-on-year decline in June. Formal employment fell despite output growth above 5%. A platform delivery worker, according to Fundación Encuentro, needs to complete 453 orders per month to sustain a family of four. And in the northern and Cuyo provinces, one in five bank debtors is now classified as "unrecoverable" — the share of debtors in situation 5 rose from 9.8% to 17.2% in a year.

In this two-speed picture, the government advanced this week with several far-reaching institutional initiatives. It launched the international tender to privatize the Los Nihuiles Hydroelectric System in Mendoza — four plants on the Atuel River, currently with a 52% stake held by Pampa Energía — as part of a plan that aims to raise up to $2.3 billion over the remainder of 2026 and 2027. It also awarded the concession of four highway corridors for 20 years through the public works-by-toll system. It established the new registration procedure to participate in privatization auctions via the SUBAST.AR platform. And President Milei announced that next Thursday, in a nationwide address, he will present the bill to reform the BCRA's Organic Charter, an initiative that seeks to prohibit monetary financing of the Treasury and set price stability as the sole objective of monetary policy, in line with central bank mandates in countries such as Chile and Paraguay that Argentina never adopted.

Also on the debt front, the Finance Secretariat launched a key auction to raise more than $1.351 billion with the Bonar 2029 and roll over peso maturities of $8.5 trillion, incorporating an innovative dual bond that adjusts by the TAMAR rate or by the official exchange rate, whichever is more favorable to the investor. The instrument aims to extend the maturity profile and defuse the accumulation of commitments in the 2027 election year, when Argentina will have to pay $7.5 billion net to the IMF — $4.4 billion in principal and $3.1 billion in interest — with no prospect of additional financing from the organism.

What lies ahead in the coming days concentr