Chile squanders a historic window despite recognizing its structural problems.

Chile's economy has spent a decade generating consensus on its structural problems without solving them, and what crystallizes that diagnosis today is not an isolated data point but the convergence of multiple institutional voices that, with unusual candor, acknowledge the country is squandering a historic window. That is the central tension running through this week's economic agenda.

Jorge Nazer, president of Endeavor Chile and founder of Grupo ALTO, put it with a bluntness rarely heard in those circles: "I see Chile standing still out of our own apathy, despite the enormous opportunities out there." His diagnosis points directly at the inertia that settled in during a decade of reforms designed on the premise that the country was irresistible to foreign investment — an assumption that time has disproved. His call to be "much more aggressive" on public investment is not rhetoric: it is a signal that even the most entrepreneurially minded corner of the business world recognizes that the state must take on a more active role to move the needle.

That call resonates with particular force in the fiscal context. Rodrigo Valdés, director of the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department and former Chilean Finance Minister, was precise in noting that "Chile's fiscal situation is one that requires attention," underscoring the need for smart adjustments that take into account today's high-interest-rate environment. The dilemma is textbook: the country needs more public investment to reactivate growth and employment, but its fiscal space is narrow and the cost of financing remains high globally. It is no minor contradiction, and the government of José Antonio Kast faces it with an approval rating that, according to the Plaza Pública survey by Cadem published this week, barely reaches 29%. Among those who disapprove of his administration, 42% cite the drop in growth and the rise in unemployment — now at 9.8% — as the central reason for their rejection.

Private investment offers no signs of broad-based recovery either. Data from the Environmental Impact Assessment System show that the amount of projects submitted to the SEIA grew 10.5% in the January–September period, but that headline is misleading: excluding mining, the drop is 36.5%. The dynamism is concentrated in the north and in a handful of large copper projects, which leads specialists to urge caution before declaring a rebound. The International Energy Agency estimates that regional production of critical minerals will increase by close to 50% toward the end of this decade, and Chile sits at the center of that projection, but realizing that potential requires precisely the kind of institutional certainty that is in short supply today.

Bernardo Larraín, chairman of Empresas CMPC, was direct on this point, noting that after the tax reduction included in the Reconstruction Law, the country still needs a labor agenda and a SEIA reform that grants real certainty on permits. SOFOFA, which wrapped up a tour of the country's 16 regions, arrived at an identical conclusion: from Arica to Magallanes the same obstacles recur — lack of legal certainty, permit processing, territorial planning and infrastructure gaps — and it estimates that executing the projects currently under environmental review would allow the unemployment rate to fall from 9.6% to 8%, generating more than 170,000 direct jobs.

The labor market paradox deepens the picture. Despite high unemployment, companies face difficulties filling certain technical profiles, a skills gap that experts warn could widen if not addressed through training. The boom in AI-linked data centers illustrates the problem precisely: the sector projects an employment chain running from construction to the operation of digital infrastructure, but the technical talent required does not exist in sufficient quantity. The National AI Policy already identifies sovereign compute capacity as an "enabling condition" that Chile still lacks, according to the Latin American AI Index prepared by Cenia and ECLAC. Corfo, for its part, is building a data unit and preparing a 50% expansion of its Start-Up Chile program for 2027, but these are incremental steps against a structural gap.

On the external front, Chile is trying to position itself strategically in a more uncertain trade environment. SOFOFA sought to strengthen ties with the European Union around the Advanced Framework Agreement and critical minerals, while promoting the country as a bridge to the CPTPP. OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann explicitly backed the direction of recent reforms, noting that "Chile's economic strength is based on openness, stability and competitiveness." From Beijing, the outgoing Chinese ambassador left a message that points directly at the context of global trade tension: "Giving in to bullying and coercion only makes the neighborhood bully go further and further" — a signal that China considers its relationship with Chile a strategic asset in its positioning against Washington's protectionist pressure.

In capital markets, the reform under discussion in Congress is generating moderate but real expectations. Since the Cencosud Shopping IPO in 2019, no company has debuted on the Santiago Stock Exchange, a seven-year drought that reflects both macroeconomic conditions and regulatory limitations. Asset managers, meanwhile, are redesigning their mutual fund portfolios to access the capital gains tax exemption, with players such as Fintual, BCI and Sura already registered with new product lines, which suggests that financial engineering is responding more nimbly than real investment to the available incentives.

What lies ahead merits attention on several fronts simultaneously: the discussion of the 2027 Budget in Congress, where fiscal sustainability coexists with demands for more spending; the decision on Mepco in the face of pressure from truckers over the projected diesel price hike this week; the progress of the capital markets reform; and the evolution of unemployment in the third quarter. The underlying question every actor is asking, without any having a definitive answer, is whether the "green shoots" that BTG Pactual chief economist Pablo Cruz sees in commerce and industry are enough to offset the double-digit contraction in mining, or whether Chile will keep sailing at two speeds without either one being enough to regain altitude.

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