Capital flight triples as Chile's growth forecast falls to 1.6%

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean today cut its 2026 growth forecast for Chile to 1.6%, four-tenths below its April estimate, leaving the country as the third-worst performer in South America and below the regional average. The revision comes at an awkward moment: the Chilean economy has been accumulating contradictory signals that make it difficult to sustain any simple narrative about its trajectory, and today's session brought several of them into sharp relief simultaneously.

ECLAC's downgrade is not an isolated surprise. It aligns with central bank data showing a 0.2% GDP contraction in the second quarter, and with a capital outflow that exceeded US$2.146 billion in the first half — triple the US$723 million recorded in the same period of 2025 and the highest level since the first half of 2022. While the second quarter showed a significant moderation — only US$258 million left between April and June — the damage from the first quarter is already on the books. Economists consulted by La Tercera attribute the phenomenon primarily to portfolio diversification by individuals and non-financial corporates, a habit entrenched since the 2019 social unrest that has not faded even as political uncertainty has receded. The implicit message is unsettling: Chile may have reduced its political risk premium without regaining its appeal as an investment destination.

Against that backdrop, today's market action illustrated the tension between external and domestic forces. The dollar closed virtually flat at $921.65 after touching an intraday high of $926.90. The Chilean peso held up partly thanks to copper, which — despite easing slightly — remains at historically elevated levels. The three-month Comex contract fell 0.31% to US$6.48 per pound, and the LME spot price slipped 0.07% to US$6.42, following Monday's all-time high of US$6.735. The arrival of more than 20,000 tonnes into LME warehouses relieved some of the tightness and pushed the metal lower for a third consecutive session. The IPSA, coming off five straight sessions of gains driven by upside earnings surprises and optimism around the government's mega-reform, closed nearly flat. Wall Street fell after Donald Trump threatened what he himself described as "the most devastating economic operation ever carried out against any country," referring to new sanctions on Iran that pushed Brent crude to near one-month highs and pressured long-dated US yields upward.

That pressure on oil has direct consequences for Chilean consumers. The Finance Ministry warned that, if the current scenario holds, further fuel price hikes are anticipated, with diesel the most exposed — carrying an un-transferred gap of $250 per liter versus the international price. Minister Jorge Quiroz defended the staggered application of the Fuel Price Stabilization Mechanism (Mepco) as a way to cushion the adjustment gradually, but the signal is clear: inflationary pressure from energy commodities has not abated.

On the fiscal front, Quiroz also led the first technical-political working group for the reconstruction of the Coquimbo and Atacama regions, devastated by July's storms. The government will announce a special fund in the Budget Law, initially financed through sales of fiscal assets, in line with recommendations from the Autonomous Fiscal Council and the IMF to replenish the Economic and Social Stabilization Fund. The logic is twofold: address the emergency without further deteriorating a fiscal balance that already operates with limited headroom. In parallel, the SII extended until November 30 the deadline for 900,000 lower-income taxpayers to regularize debts tied to the Solidarity Loans of 2020 and 2021 — another sign that the pandemic's fiscal legacy continues to shape tax administration.

The pension reform continues to generate technical debate. Fintual, the asset manager evaluating entry into the AFP business, submitted formal comments to the Pension Superintendency criticizing entry barriers in the proposed new investment regime. Renzo Vercelli, general manager of AFP Capital, noted that the definition of the new generational funds and the investment regime are critical variables for the reform's success. Meanwhile, utility companies — gas, electricity and water — turned to the Constitutional Court to challenge Article 31 of the mega-reform, which requires them to reconnect residential users and SMEs in disaster zones free of charge, citing constitutional flaws and technical safety risks.

Among sector news with broader implications, activity in the country's north stands out. The Port of Arica closed a US$20 million private investment in partnership with Impala Terminals — a Trafigura group subsidiary — to modernize mineral handling, with a 50,000-tonne warehouse that frees up interior terminal space. The investment reinforces the port's position as a logistics hub for altiplano mining, at a time when the Coquimbo region has accumulated environmental approvals worth US$347.8 million in energy projects, including the Hanna photovoltaic park. Solar energy already contributed 40% of regional generation in the first half. The energy transition is advancing in mining regions at a pace that contrasts sharply with the macro stagnation.

On the labor front, Escondida — the world's largest copper mine, controlled by BHP — submitted its counterproposal to the supervisors' union within the legal deadline and announced the imminent formation of the negotiating table, a process the market will follow closely given the sensitivity of the underlying asset. At the same time, Sofofa presented a labor reform agenda centered on five measures, including universal severance through an individual account administered by the AFC and universal childcare, arguing that lowering the contingent cost of hiring would favor formal employment and narrow the gender gap. The business federation estimates that a four-percentage-point cut in the First Category Tax — from 27% to 23% — could generate more than 80,000 additional direct jobs over four years.

On the trade front, the Sofofa seminar marking 20 years of the Chile-China FTA laid bare the scale of bilateral dependence: trade with Beijing exceeded US$67 billion in 2025, cementing China as the country's top trading partner. The discussion turned toward the next phase — services, artificial intelligence, robotics — and the federation is preparing a high-level business mission for November, on the sidelines of the APEC CEO Summit 2026. For its part, Amazon announced a US$2 billion investment in Prime Video for Latin America between 2027 and 2030, with local production in Chile, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Colombia, including sports rights — a signal that the region is consolidating its appeal for the digital entertainment economy.

Next week will bring several relevant milestones. The Escondida negotiation will enter its formal table phase just as copper shows signs of consolidation after its record highs. The Constitutional Court will need to rule on the utility companies' challenges to the mega-reform. And the market will continue monitoring whether the second quarter's 0.2% GDP contraction marks a floor or the beginning of a more prolonged slowdown that would vindicate ECLAC sooner than expected.

**Ticketplus (NYSE: TKTP)** — The Chilean ticketing technology company reported earnings of US$4.1 million in the first half of 2026, a 151% year-on-year increase, with revenue of US$22.8 million (+68%) and EBITDA of US$9.6 million that expanded margins to 42.1% from 33.9%. The company, which completed its NYSE listing in August 2026, has accumulated gross sales of US$280.3 million as of June 30, surpassing its full-year 2025 total.

**Watt's (Santiago: WATT)** — The Chilean food and beverage company posted earnings of $11.068 billion in the first half of 2026, a 124% increase from the same period a year earlier, with operating income advancing 38.4% on margin improvements in the food segment. Revenues grew 6%, beating market expectations against a backdrop of weak domestic demand.

**Pampa Investments (Santiago: PAMPA)** — The company controlled by the Ponce family will join the IPSA on September 1 as the index's 31st stock, following the simplification of the cascading holding structure from six to two entities and the name change from Oro Blanco. Vice-Chair Francisca Ponce announced an international roadshow scheduled for 2027 aimed at attracting foreign shareholders, marking the group's formal debut on the global capital circuit.