SEC clears SQM as copper surges, dollar weakens on US bond plan

The IPSA's close above 11,200 points for a fifth consecutive session did not happen in a vacuum: it was the confluence of a U.S. Treasury decision, the closure of an SEC investigation against SQM, and a rebound in copper that turned this Wednesday into a session capturing, with unusual clarity, Chile's structural dependence on external forces —and the fragility of that privilege when conditions reverse.

The trigger came from Washington. The Treasury Department announced a long-dated bond buyback plan that will at least double the volume of each liquidity-support operation, pushing U.S. long-end yields lower and sending the dollar index down 0.9% to a three-month low. The Chilean peso responded in kind: the U.S. currency closed near $920, well below the levels that dominated the prior quarter. For an economy that imports fuel in dollars and exports copper also priced in that currency, the move is double-edged, but in the short term the net signal was positive: the red metal rallied on dollar weakness, and Chilean assets responded vigorously.

But the session also had its local protagonist. The U.S. SEC informed SQM —whose ADS trades on the New York Stock Exchange— that it had closed without sanctions the corruption investigation that had weighed on the company for years. The closure letter, received on June 12, 2026, cleared a regulatory cloud that had acted as a drag on the valuation of the world's leading lithium producer. The market cheered with gains that contributed directly to the IPSA rally, consolidating the week's bullish streak.

Copper, however, is the connecting thread of nearly everything happening in Chile this week. Kevin Cowan, a Banco Central board member, was explicit in noting that part of the red metal's price rise "is not short-term, but should be sustained," linking its trajectory to the AI boom, the energy transition, and rising global defense spending. The observation carries institutional weight: when a central bank board member rules out the transitory nature of a price rally, he is simultaneously modulating fiscal, exchange-rate, and monetary policy expectations. Mining Minister José Miguel Arellano, for his part, sketched out a conceptual roadmap for avoiding the mistakes of the previous supercycle, warning that "the difference between a transitory bonanza and a genuine boost to development" will depend on the country's ability to translate revenues into productivity, investment, and institutions. It is a warning Chile has heard before and acted on little.

The copper value chain extends well beyond Chilean borders. Caterpillar, whose shares trade on the NYSE, has benefited directly from the rally: sales of turbines and mining equipment have driven its share price in a context where data centers —voracious consumers of copper for their electrical infrastructure— add a new source of structural demand for the metal. That intersection of mining, artificial intelligence, and digital infrastructure is reshaping global supply chains, and Chile sits at the center of that geometry.

In digital infrastructure specifically, the Chilean state is taking positions. Desarrollo País, the state's business arm, is concentrating its portfolio around two pillars: data centers and land near Metro lines. The bet reflects a reading of global trends, though its execution in the context of a state with limited institutional capacity warrants monitoring. Meanwhile, Arauco received backing from its controller: Empresas Copec clarified that its US$450 million funding commitment to the forestry company "is not a direct capital injection," a distinction with accounting and regulatory implications that the market will need to calibrate.

On the domestic front, the most immediate tension is playing out at the pump. ENAP confirmed increases of $34.8 per liter for 93- and 97-octane gasoline, and $97.4 for diesel, effective this Thursday. Finance Minister Jorge Quiroz had anticipated the adjustment, arguing that "prices have kept rising abroad" and that the hikes will be gradual. Freight transport associations reacted sharply, sending a letter to Quiroz himself demanding that the diesel increase strictly adhere to the Mepco rule —which would imply a maximum hike of around $30 per liter— and warning that any figure above that would violate agreements reached with the Executive in March. "We no longer have room to absorb new and steep hikes," they stated publicly. The cost, ultimately, will be passed on to the final consumer, adding inflationary pressure at a time when the Banco Central is closely watching price expectations.

On the regulatory front, the week brought two pieces of news pointing in opposite directions. The CMF fined Nevasa Corredores de Bolsa $245 million after accusing it of submitting false information about its financial position: the regulator detailed that in August 2023 the brokerage booked as collected a poorly issued check that was never deposited, artificially inflating its liquid capital. The Supreme Court, by contrast, acquitted former executives of Nova Austral in an environmental crimes and tax fraud case tied to the salmon industry, a ruling that the Consejo de Defensa del Estado and the Public Prosecutor's Office had actively contested.

What lies ahead demands attention on several simultaneous fronts. The start of collective bargaining at Minera Escondida —the world's largest copper mine— comes at a moment when the metal's price is at levels that strengthen workers' negotiating position. The Joint Commission on bank secrecy will begin its work on September 2 with the ministers of Finance and Public Security among the first summoned, in a debate that will have repercussions for tax enforcement and the pursuit of organized crime. And the SII will issue 12 circulars and 16 resolutions to implement the Reconstruction law, a process whose pace will partly determine how quickly the private sector can adapt to the new fiscal rules of the game.

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**SQM (NYSE: SQM)** — The U.S. SEC closed without sanctions its corruption investigation against the company, clearing the main regulatory risk that had weighed on Chile's largest lithium producer, whose ADS trades in New York. The announcement lifted the stock and contributed decisively to the IPSA rally in its fifth consecutive bullish session.

**Empresas Copec (SSE: COPEC)** — The holding clarified that its US$450 million funding commitment to its subsidiary Arauco does not constitute a direct capital injection, a distinction with implications for how the liability will be consolidated in the group's financial statements. Copec is one of the largest forestry conglomerates in Latin America.

**Nevasa Corredores de Bolsa** — The CMF fined the firm $245 million after determining that in August 2023 it submitted false capital information to the regulator, booking a poorly issued check as if it had been collected in order to display capital coverage ratios higher than the actual figures.