Megarreforma tributaria aprobada, pero temporal, anatocismo y Codelco erosionan confianza.

The third-stage congressional approval of the core of President José Antonio Kast's so-called "mega-reform" marks a turning point for the Chilean economy, but the real drama of the day is not in Congress: it lies in the contradiction between a pro-investment legislative signal and a series of forces simultaneously blunting it, ranging from a ban on compound interest that has alarmed the banking sector, to a storm hammering key productive industries, to an external audit at Codelco that lays bare the vulnerabilities of the country's most strategic company.

The Chamber of Deputies approved by 85 votes in favor and 59 against the bulk of the bill, ratifying changes that include a gradual reduction of the First Category Tax from 27% to 23%, a new tax invariance formula negotiated with PPD senators, modifications to capital repatriation, and a streamlining of investment permits. Finance Minister Jorge Quiroz described the outcome as a milestone in restoring Chile's tax competitiveness, highlighting cross-party support from outside the ruling coalition, including the Partido de la Gente, Partido Nacional Libertario, and the Christian Democrats. Tax attorney Soledad Recabarren, partner at Recabarren & Asociados, told Diario Financiero that with these adjustments Chile's tax burden "is starting to get much closer to the average" — a diagnosis that contrasts with the analysis from SOFOFA, whose study calculates that the four-point cut in the corporate tax could generate between 80,000 and 210,000 additional jobs over four years, and in the most optimistic scenario more than 330,000 positions between 2026 and 2030.

The private sector, however, is not celebrating unreservedly. The Confederación de la Producción y del Comercio welcomed the progress but flagged two provisions that survived in the final text: the ban on anatocism — the charging of interest on interest — and the so-called financial "right to be forgotten," which restricts the information institutions can retain on unpaid debts older than five years. The CPC has urged the government to exercise its veto powers on both provisions. The most forceful warning came from José Manuel Mena, president of the Asociación de Bancos, who argued that if the ban on anatocism is confirmed, "the effect would be more severe than that of the pension fund withdrawals," with credit restrictions, systemic operational problems, and potential deterioration in the relationship with international markets. It is a signal that sovereign debt markets and risk analysts will not overlook.

While the legislative debate unfolds in Santiago, the storm affecting the country from Atacama to Los Lagos adds a short-term macroeconomic variable that complicates the picture. Preliminary projections point to a negative impact of up to 0.3 percentage points on the Imacec and a rise of up to 0.1% in the CPI, according to La Tercera. The agricultural logistics chain is fractured: from the Sociedad Nacional de Agricultura, president Antonio Walker warned that the arrival of vegetables and legumes at wholesale markets has fallen significantly due to highway and rural road closures. The pisco industry is facing a specific emergency: Cooperativa Capel has halted operations, vineyards in the Elqui Valley and Vallenar report damage to irrigation infrastructure, and the sector was already carrying a 29.9% drop in exports during the first half. The Port of Arica, meanwhile, raised its dispatch capacity by 40% to cope with the logistical crisis in Bolivia, reaching 1,282 weekly shipments, although saturation has forced the coordination of cargo transfers to off-port facilities. The Superintendencia de Electricidad y Combustibles filed charges against Chilquinta Distribución for leaving 170,445 customers without service in Valparaíso, with thousands of users accumulating more than 84 hours without electricity.

In financial markets, the dollar halted its slide and closed with a slight gain, in part due to global strength in the U.S. currency that overshadowed the boost from higher copper prices. What stands out is the level of short bets against the Chilean peso: according to Rodrigo Castillo, managing director of BeFX, short positions reached USD 17.845 billion, the highest level of the year and above the peak recorded on July 9. That figure reflects a structural mistrust in the markets that approval of the mega-reform will not, on its own, dispel immediately. Analysts consulted by Diario Financiero identify three catalysts needed for the IPSA to break above 11,000 points: a sustained recovery in lithium prices, a lasting truce in the Middle East, and the final resolution of the reconstruction bill in the joint committee.

On the lithium front, SQM made a globally significant decision today: together with its Australian partner Wesfarmers, it approved the final investment of up to USD 500 million to expand the Mt. Holland project in Western Australia, doubling spodumene concentrate production capacity from 380,000 to 760,000 tonnes per year. The move consolidates SQM's bet on diversifying its asset base outside Chile at a time when lithium prices have yet to recover their 2022 and 2023 levels, but it stands as a vote of confidence in long-term demand driven by transport electrification.

The scandal at Codelco takes on a new dimension: the board has commissioned KPMG to conduct an external audit covering 2024 and 2025 production, according to director Tamara Agnic in testimony before the Chamber's investigative committee. The review goes beyond the 27,000 tonnes of copper whose irregular accounting prompted earlier sanctions. At the same time, former board chairman Máximo Pacheco reappeared publicly to accuse the state-owned company of "politicization" under the chairmanship of Bernardo Fontaine, who in turn described a "crisis" at the company, citing debt of roughly USD 25 billion — four times the average of the world's largest miners — and costs that have risen 43% in four years. The tension between the two executives, playing out before the investigative committee and in the media, only deepens uncertainty over the corporate governance of the Chilean state's flagship company in a year when analysts expect it to generate around USD 8 billion in EBITDA.

On the labor front, the complexity of the picture intensifies. With an unemployment rate of 9.4% — the highest in Latin America, according to economists at the Universidad Católica — and 77% of the population perceiving a labor emergency according to a Descifra poll, the government has introduced a bill to add flexibility to the implementation of the 40-hour workweek, extending the period of