Finance minister's June inflection point claim collides with speculative peso assault.

Finance Minister Jorge Quiroz this week ruled out a recession with a statement that, if confirmed, would radically shift market sentiment: that June marked "an inflection point" and that the month's Imacec will come in positive. The declaration arrives at the moment of greatest macroeconomic tension Chile has faced in years, with five consecutive months of economic contraction, an unemployment rate of 9.4% — the highest in five years and the highest in Latin America according to several analysts — and a peso under mounting speculative pressure. The combination of an officially upbeat minister and a market aggressively betting against the local currency is the central contradiction defining Chile's economic landscape right now.

In the FX market, the signal is unambiguous. According to Diario Financiero, the derivatives market has recorded a net foreign positioning against the Chilean peso of US$4.5 billion over the last seven sessions, one of the most aggressive speculative moves of the year. The dollar opens slightly higher as the greenback strengthens globally ahead of the U.S. ISM services index, adding external pressure to a currency already facing domestic headwinds. CFA vice president Sebastián Izquierdo puts his finger on the wound: were the weaker GDP not partly cushioned by high copper prices, Chile would be facing even greater fiscal strains. He warns of what he sees as an erosion of the fiscal framework's credibility, driven by successive misses on structural deficit targets.

The Cadem poll published this week darkens the picture. President Kast's disapproval rating rises to 60%, and a broad majority of respondents perceive the economy as stagnant or in retreat. Fifty-two percent describe their personal economic situation as bad or very bad. These are numbers that complicate the government's narrative at a critical moment: while Quiroz projects growth above 3% for 2027 and expects the second half to mark a recovery, the economists consulted by La Tercera temper his optimism. Most agree the second half will improve on the first — supported by the lower base of comparison, robust copper prices and expected declines in fuel costs — but none endorse the minister's enthusiasm without reservations.

The Megarreforma, officially christened the National Reconstruction Project, is this week's political focal point, and its passage through Congress enters the decisive phase. It begins today its detailed discussion in the Senate's Environment Committee, with a floor vote scheduled for July 21 and 22. The government has 26 votes to secure passage by majority. However, the Senate's Comité Unido — grouping the DC, PC, Frente Amplio and allies — warned that it has found no openness from the government on the project's core: the corporate tax cut. That measure, which would reduce the First Category Tax from 27% to 23%, is precisely the heart of the executive's pro-investment proposal. SOFOFA, a strong backer of the reform, quantifies its potential impact: a four-percentage-point cut in the IDPC would generate, according to its internal analysis, at least 80,800 direct jobs and could exceed 330,000 positions over the 2026-2030 period under the government's growth scenario. The industrial guild also notes that Chile has become the OECD country that has most increased its corporate rate over the last 20 years, rising from 10% to 27%, and today ranks 36th out of 38 countries in tax competitiveness.

The adjustment to the employment credit — which Quiroz proposed reducing from US$1.4 billion to US$600 million — has generated divisions even among supporters of the reform. Senate opponents cite it as evidence that the government lacks a credible offsetting formula to make up for the revenue loss implied by the corporate tax cut. Claudia Martínez, director of UC's Institute of Economics, defends the general thrust of the agenda but insists the country needs to introduce degrees of labor flexibility that facilitate job creation, particularly in a context of accelerated technological change.

Against that backdrop of fiscal pressure and political debate, the state of Codelco is a source of concern. A report commissioned by Finance Minister Rodrigo Fontaine and analyzed by Diario Financiero concludes that during the tenure of former chief executive André Pacheco, the copper producer's debt grew more than its transfers to the Treasury. The report recommends "rethinking the strategy" of the company, reviewing its business portfolio, and undertaking structural changes. For a company that is the main source of foreign exchange for the Chilean state and whose performance directly conditions the country's fiscal health, the report's conclusions are no small matter: at a moment when the copper price is serving as a cushion for public accounts, Codelco's operational efficiency has implications that extend far beyond its own balance sheet.

On the external front, the Kast government continues its foreign investment charm offensive. Defense Minister Fernando Barros and Foreign Minister Francisco Pérez Mackenna on Sunday led a business meeting aboard the Esmeralda training ship in New York, as part of the celebrations marking the 250th anniversary of U.S. independence, to promote Chile as an investment destination and capitalize on the deregulation and tax reduction agenda. Undersecretary of International Economic Relations Paula Estévez adds another dimension: the Bioceanic Corridor, scheduled to enter service in 2027, would position Chile as an outbound gateway for regional products headed to Asia and Europe via the Atlantic, a geopolitical-commercial argument that gains relevance amid the reconfiguration of global supply chains.

On the pensions front, the Superintendency of Pensions has put out for consultation a proposal for ten generational funds to replace the current multifondos system, with Bci Asset Management and Santander Asset Management designated to administer the resources of the new Autonomous Pension Protection Fund. AFP Cuprum welcomed the initiative, highlighting that it incorporates international best practices. The change in the architecture of the pension system, if adopted, would be the most significant transformation in the management of Chileans' retirement savings in two decades.

What comes over the next few days will determine whether Quiroz's optimism has real substance: the release of June's Imacec will be the most closely watched data point of the month, and any positive reading — even a marginal one — would shift the tone of the political debate and ease pressure on the peso. In parallel, the floor vote on the Megarreforma at month-end will be the thermometer of the government's ability to translate its reactivation agenda into concrete legislation. If the project fails to incorporate sufficient concessions for the critical votes