Brazil cuts rates while Fed tightens amid oil shock and fiscal doubts

"Super Wednesday" on September 16, 2026 arrives loaded with a contradiction that rarely manifests so sharply: while the Banco Central do Brasil prepares to cut interest rates for the second consecutive time in a still-cautious calibration cycle, the Federal Reserve is expected to make the opposite move, lifting the Fed Funds to the 3.75%–4.00% range in the face of inflationary persistence amplified by the oil shock. With Brent above US$108 — after Iran once again refused any negotiation with Washington, rejecting Donald Trump's overtures — the world of energy commodities and global monetary policy are pushing in opposing directions, and Brazil finds itself at the crossroads of these forces.

The divergence is the central event of the day. The Copom is expected to announce at 6:30 pm a 0.25 percentage point cut in the Selic, bringing the rate to 13.75% per year — the lowest level since the start of the current tightening cycle. The decision itself is barely surprising: the market had priced it in with high probability. What draws attention is the statement. Analysts consulted by Folha de S.Paulo note that the next step has become genuinely more difficult: oil above US$100 fuels inflation expectations, retail retreated more than expected in July — delivering its worst performance in three months and corroborating signs of weakening domestic demand — and public debt continues on an upward trajectory even as the primary deficit improves. The Prisma report from the Ministry of Finance, released on Tuesday, showed economists revised down their deficit estimates for 2026 and 2027 — the median for this year fell from R$59.1 billion to R$52.3 billion — but simultaneously raised the projection of gross debt to 83.2% of GDP in 2026 and 87.0% in 2027. Smaller deficit growth, longer debt trajectory: it is the combination that prevents any fiscal euphoria.

The external context adds weight to this scenario. Oil, which closed on Tuesday above US$106 and reached US$108 during the session, boosted shares of Petrobras, Prio and PetroReconcavo on the B3, contributing to a 0.54% rise in the Ibovespa, to 186,502 points. The Banco Central had to intervene in the foreign exchange market with simultaneous buy and sell operations of US$1 billion to inject liquidity in the face of currency outflows. The war in Iran, which had already affected Rio Grande do Sul — where rural producers report diesel shortages and fear the impact on rice and soybean planting — now also threatens the margins of small iron ore miners, which face soaring freight costs to China. These are geopolitical patchworks that make Brazil's productive fabric feel every stitch.

On the fiscal and regulatory front, the Lula government delivered two distinct signals in 24 hours. The positive one: the sanctioning of Redata, a R$5 billion incentives package for the data center sector, which reduces to zero the taxes on imports of technology equipment for three years, at an estimated fiscal cost of R$7.5 billion. The initiative positions the Northeast — with its predominantly renewable energy matrix and the arrival of submarine cables — as a potential digital hub for Latin America, on the same day that ByteDance brings a flagship data center online in Ceará. The counterpoint: the technical department of the TCU issued an alert to the government about the risk of maintaining in the Budget the full projection of revenue from taxation on dividends, when only 5% of the estimated total had actually been collected in the first half. André Esteves, chairman of BTG Pactual, was even more direct in criticizing the volume of tax-exempt securities in Brazil as "completely absurd," while the country's largest publicly listed companies were lobbying to preserve precisely these instruments with the presidential candidates.

This environment of latent corporate crisis demands special attention. The string of judicial and extrajudicial recoveries — Casas Bahia, Braskem, Grupo Pão de Açúcar — has already reshaped entire teams at banks and law firms specializing in distressed debt. This week, a new chapter opened with Apex Partners, an investment advisory firm accredited to BTG Pactual, which filed for judicial recovery to restructure roughly R$1 billion in debt following alleged fraud by its former president. And the battle among creditors took on its own judicial form: Casas Bahia challenged in the São Paulo courts the extrajudicial recovery plan of GPA, arguing that the retail group did not detail the total value of debts submitted to the process, making it impossible to verify the legitimacy of the 57.49% of creditors said to have approved the plan.

The BRB crisis, in turn, has entered its most uncomfortable phase for the government of the Federal District. STF Justice Luiz Fux opened a 45-day window to decide on Governor Celina Leão's request that the Union act as guarantor of a rescue loan for the bank, frustrating her strategy of announcing a deal before the October elections. Former banker Daniel Vorcaro, owner of Banco Master, contested Leão's version by presenting messages that indicate her participation in the negotiations for BRB's purchase of Master in 2025 — an episode that Folha de S.Paulo revealed to have yet another dimension: Vorcaro was a partner of the betting house Bet.Bet between December 2023 and September 2025. The bank has yet to publish its 2025 balance sheet, and Valor Econômico reported that it lost 791,900 banking clients in nine months. The PT candidate for the DF governorship, Leandro Grass, promised to release the balance sheet and carry out an independent audit if elected.

In agribusiness, Conab revised upward its estimate of the total grain and oilseed harvest to 361.7 million tons in 2025/26 — a new record — while exports of green coffee soared more than 50% at the start of September, following August's historic record. At the same time, rains are delaying sugarcane crushing in São Paulo, sustaining ethanol prices above 2%, and Porto do Açu is moving forward with an unprecedented project to produce synthetic fuel through atmospheric carbon capture, targeted at maritime transport.

What to watch in the coming hours and days: the Copom statement will be the touchstone of the day — any signal of a pause in the cutting cycle will have immediate impact on fixed income assets and on the currency. The Fed decision, expected at 3 pm, could amplify the interest rate differential and pressure the real if accompanied by a more hawkish tone than the market anticipates. On the political-economic front, the meeting between the Minister of Industry and the U.S. Trade Representative during the G20, scheduled for the end of the month, will determine whether Brazil can open any space for negotiation on the American tariff regime in force since July. And the BRB crisis will have 45 additional days of suspense at the Supreme Court — enough time to cross the first round of elections.