Oil export tax faces court suspension as Petrobras plans Asia LNG expansion

The oil export tax became, on Thursday, the epicenter of an institutional collision that exposes the contradictions of the Lula government's fiscal strategy with unusual clarity: hours after the Foreign Trade Chamber extended by another 60 days the 12% levy on crude oil, the Federal Court of the Federal District suspended the collection of the same tax, arguing that the government cannot reissue, through an infralegal act, a provisional measure that lost effect because it was not considered by Congress. Judge Diego Câmara, of the 17th Federal Court, ruled that maintaining the levy through a Camex resolution would constitute a "circumvention of due legislative process" — language that, applied to the country's economic policy, is anything but routine. The government, which since March has collected R$7.98 billion from the tax, has already signaled that it will attempt to overturn the injunction, repeating the argument that Camex has legal authority to alter rates through infralegal acts and that the tax has a regulatory, not revenue-raising, purpose. Markets and oil companies know, however, that this distinction is increasingly difficult to sustain.

The judicial confrontation arrives at a moment when Petrobras, whose ADRs trade on the NYSE, is projecting ambitions that run counter to the spirit of the tax. In Singapore, the state-owned company's CEO, Magda Chambriard, announced that the company is studying the export of liquefied natural gas from the pre-salt fields to Asian markets, potentially through floating offshore liquefaction units in partnership with naval engineering firm Seatrium. Asia, which already absorbs the bulk of Brazilian oil exports, would be the natural destination for LNG. It is a long-term vision, but one that speaks directly to the debate over the export tax: taxing foreign sales of oil while planning to scale up energy exports is an incoherence that the market will not overlook.

Meanwhile, fiscal data released by the National Treasury brought superficial relief: the central government posted a primary surplus of R$10.78 billion in July, the seventh-largest result for the month in real terms since 1997. Net revenues grew 7.7% in real terms versus July 2025, driven by federal tax collection. But July's number does not erase the accumulated deficit of R$81.3 billion for the year, with Social Security consuming R$258.4 billion over the period — and the full-year surplus target of R$34.3 billion remains distant and improbable. The Treasury itself revised its public debt management plan, indicating that it expects Selic-linked bonds to rise further in the coming months, possibly surpassing the historical high of the series that began in December 2000. It is a sign that, within the government itself, there is little illusion about the trajectory of interest rates.

The elevated Selic remains the common denominator of a wave of corporate stress that shows no signs of abating. Habib's, through its parent company Grupo Gennius, filed for judicial reorganization with R$265.2 million in debt, with Bradesco as its main creditor holding roughly 40% of the claims. OSX, Eike Batista's shipyard carrying R$8.2 billion in debt — double what it was in 2013 when it went through its first judicial reorganization — asked the Rio de Janeiro court to accept its new plan with the application of the "cram down" mechanism, to impose the agreement even on resistant creditors. Meanwhile, Casas Bahia and Banco do Brasil are locked in a legal battle over R$422 million: the retailer accuses the bank of unilaterally debiting the amount; BB denies it and accuses the company of bad-faith litigation. GPA, in turn, has its extrajudicial reorganization plan contested by the São Paulo Public Prosecutor's Office itself, which points to legal problems in the proposed creditor class structure. And Ambipar failed to reach quorum to hold its creditors' meeting, now rescheduled for September. Aeris Energy, a wind blade manufacturer, obtained 60-day judicial protection while it negotiates with creditors. Rarely has the Brazilian market seen such a large number of simultaneous restructuring processes with such varied implications.

In this environment of structurally elevated rates, the labor market is sending seemingly contradictory signals. Unemployment fell to 5.3% in the quarter through July, the lowest level for the period in the entire IBGE historical series, which began in 2012. But the figure conceals a structural fissure: the informality rate rose from 37.2% to 37.5% over the same period, jumping from 38.1 million to 38.8 million workers without formal protection. IBGE notes that the phenomenon is structural, concentrated among self-employed workers who enter the informal market as an immediate income alternative. And average income, though up more than 13% in real terms since 2022, is showing signs of leveling off. Caixa Econômica Federal, which posted recurring profit of R$3.9 billion in the second quarter — up 5.9% versus the same period in 2025, driven by expansion of the credit portfolio — is already warning that the 12% ceiling imposed by the government on mortgage rates under the SFH is "challenging" in the current context. The logic is simple: with the Selic where it is, lending for housing at 12% compresses margins unsustainably.

On the external front, the current account posted the largest July deficit in seven years, a deterioration described by the Central Bank as "generalized." Valor Econômico reported that the Central Bank on Thursday carried out a "casadão" — a simultaneous spot dollar purchase and futures sale operation — possibly motivated by more intense capital outflows in recent days. The dollar traded higher, with investors also focused on the Jackson Hole symposium, where Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh faces the dilemma of signaling U.S. monetary policy in a context in which American inflation remains above target.

On the structural front, Alibaba Cloud announced the installation of two data centers in Brazil, the company's first in the country and in South America, as part of a global commitment of US$53 billion in artificial intelligence infrastructure. The move confirms Brazil as a priority destination for Chinese digital expansion in the region. In the opposite direction, Chinese steel continues to penetrate the Brazilian market through indirect channels: according to Bradesco BBI analysis, although direct steel imports fell 21% in the first seven months of the year — reflecting antidumping measures and quota reductions — steel embedded in imported manufactured products grew 19%, with the automotive sector accounting for two-thirds of that increase. Foreign steel's share of Brazilian demand is expected to reach 40.4% in 2026, a historical record. Domestic industry, which is already warning of the risk to 109,000 jobs from the possible end of the "blusinhas tax," therefore faces a more sophisticated threat than the conventional customs agenda captures.

In the coming weeks, investors should monitor the STF's decision on the taxation of profits from foreign-controlled subsidiaries — six of the ten justices have already voted in favor of the levy in the Vale case, with potential impact for all Brazilian multinationals — as well as CADE's ruling on Abra's appeal against American Airlines' investment in Azul, the passage of the "blusinhas" provisional measure through Congress and, above all, the legal outcome of the oil export tax, whose resolution will determine both the trajectory of federal revenue and the government's credibility as a predictable partner for the energy sector.

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**Votorantim / Nexa Resources (NYSE: NEXA)** — Votorantim signed an agreement to sell its 64.7% stake in Nexa, a zinc, copper and lead producer with operations in Brazil and Peru, to Swedish miner Boliden in a transaction valued at US$1.3 billion, structured as a share swap. Votorantim will become Boliden's largest shareholder, with 7% of the capital and a board seat, trading control of a Latin American miner for exposure to a US$17 billion European company listed on the Stockholm Stock Exchange.

**Oncoclínicas (B3: ONCO3)** — The CVM approved by three votes to zero a tender offer that could reach R$11.7 billion and rank among the largest in the history of the Brazilian capital markets, going against the opinions of its own technical staff. Minority shareholders warn that the decision may set a precedent for other public tender offers, while the Market Arbitration Chamber is examining a parallel appeal questioning the CVM's authority to determine the operation.

**Petrobras (NYSE: PBR)** — The state-owned company announced a plan to repurchase approximately US$1 billion in bonds maturing in 2028 and, through its CEO Magda Chambriard, revealed studies to export liquefied natural gas from the pre-salt to Asian markets via floating liquefaction units, in a potential partnership with Seatrium — a strategic move that contrasts directly with the 12% export tax the government is trying to maintain on crude oil.