Brent surge toward $100 as Yemen blockade tightens Brazil's fiscal noose

Brent crude approaching $100 a barrel — for the first time in months, driven by attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — dominates Thursday's financial landscape and decisively complicates Brazil's already fragile economic equation, pressuring global rates at a moment when the country simultaneously faces American tariffs, a public debt on an explosive trajectory, and NTN-Bs with real yields above 8% for virtually every maturity through 2037.

Brent was up more than 4.5% on Thursday morning, trading at $98.73 on ICE, while WTI advanced to $90.51 on Nymex, according to Valor Econômico. Yemen's Houthis claimed responsibility for attacks on two Saudi vessels, implementing a naval blockade that threatens the transit of roughly 4 million barrels per day of Saudi exports through the Red Sea. MUFG analysts warn that the probability of Brent reaching $100 has increased substantially should tensions persist. For Brazil, this move arrives at an awkward moment: the country already pays for the fragility of its fiscal policy, and the surge in oil prices reopens the debate over diesel subsidies — Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) received this week a new tranche of the Diesel Economic Subvention Program — while simultaneously pressuring global inflation and lifting long-dated U.S. yields, with the 30-year Treasury trading at 5.16%, near its highest levels since 2007.

It is against this adverse backdrop that the domestic market tries to balance two contradictory forces. On one side, the Ibovespa surged 2.43% on Wednesday, closing at 177,547 points, with the dollar retreating to R$5.05, buoyed by the start of second-quarter earnings season and the rally in commodities — pricier oil benefits the real and energy stocks. On the other, stress in the NTN-B market is intensifying: real yields on maturities through 2037 now consistently trade above 8%, and corporate debt underwriters report growing difficulty pricing debentures, forcing banks to warehouse paper on their own books. Santander analysts say that, in 18 years covering the NTN-B market, they have never seen anything analogous. The National Treasury is trying to convince the market that there is a path back to investment grade, but the narrative is meeting a skeptical audience.

Fiscal tension is the permanent backdrop. Gross public debt has already reached 81.1% of GDP in May, according to the Central Bank, and columnist Solange Srour, writing in Folha de S.Paulo, argues that the 2026 electoral debate has deliberately ignored this trajectory — an omission that the market charges for via a rising risk premium. The Finance Ministry, meanwhile, downgraded Amapá's credit rating this week just four months after having eased rules to release a sovereign guarantee on a R$536 million loan to the state, an episode that illustrates the tension between political pressures and subnational fiscal discipline. The TCU also issued a warning on Correios, which accumulated losses of R$8.5 billion in 2025 and R$3.16 billion in the first quarter of this year alone, aggravated by the R$4.6 billion cost of the universal service mandate without explicit federal compensation.

On the external front, the 25% American tariffs on Brazilian products — in force since the early hours of Wednesday — remain the main vector of uncertainty for industry. President Lula announced R$18.5 billion in credit lines via the Brasil Soberano 3 program, of which R$13.5 billion comes from the Treasury and R$5 billion from BNDES, operationalized by a provisional measure published in an extra edition of the Official Gazette. Economists surveyed by Valor, however, are skeptical: Sergio Vale, of MB Associados, compares the initiative to the post-2008 stimulus programs that contributed to the 2015-2016 crisis, arguing that the only effective response would be opening new markets. The timber sector, according to Folha, is already weighing production cuts and layoffs, openly declaring it has no plan B. Vice President Alckmin ruled out retaliation and Lula reiterated that Brazil will not walk away from the negotiating table — a posture that, for now, preserves the diplomatic channel but offers no immediate relief to industry.

Paradoxically, it is precisely in this scenario of trade pressure that Brazil is consolidating its position as a global agricultural powerhouse: according to Folha, the United States is about to lose its status as the world's largest agricultural exporter to Brazil, the result of decades of expansion in Brazilian agribusiness. The irony does not go unnoticed — Trump slaps tariffs on Brazil even as the country overtakes American leadership in food exports.

On the corporate front, Vale (NYSE: VALE) starred in the week's most dramatic episode: shareholders elected Manuel Lino Silva de Sousa Oliveira, "Ollie," backed by Previ, as the new chairman of the board, while the board itself voted to remove Marcelo Gasparino, accused of leaking confidential information about a June meeting in which the two had contested the chairman seat. The investigation was conducted by an independent outside firm. Meanwhile, Nubank (NYSE: NU) announced the acquisition of 100% of Banco Porto Real de Investimentos, securing the banking license required to comply with the Central Bank's Joint Resolution 17 — an operation that elegantly resolves a regulatory requirement that had threatened the fintech's use of the "bank" brand. Simultaneously, David Vélez joined OpenAI's board of directors, consolidating both the executive's and the company's global profile.

Next week brings key definitions on multiple fronts: the outcome of tariff negotiations with Washington, where the American government may still impose an additional tariff arising from the investigation into forced labor in third markets; the pace of second-quarter earnings releases, which will be decisive for sustaining or reversing the Ibovespa rally; and the trajectory of oil prices, whose impact on global inflation and U.S. rates could quickly reshape the scenario for risk assets across the entire emerging world.

**Vale (NYSE: VALE, B3: VALE3)** — Shareholders elected Manuel Lino Silva de Sousa Oliveira ("Ollie"), the candidate backed by Previ, as new chairman of the board, ending a hard-fought contest with Marcelo Gasparino, who was subsequently removed from the board by the collegiate itself after an independent investigation confirmed the leaking of confidential information. The miner, the world's largest iron ore exporter, posted growth of