YPFB intervention sparks fuel crisis as Bolivia pursues structural reforms.

The Bolivian government's intervention in Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales Bolivianos turns the state-owned energy company into the epicenter of an institutional crisis that, combined with chronic diesel shortages and a still-unstable exchange rate transition, defines the most delicate moment for the Bolivian economy since the change of administration.

President Rodrigo Paz's government decreed the intervention of YPFB and announced a deep restructuring of the company in response to corruption allegations, a measure that arrives simultaneously with the intervention of the Agencia Nacional de Hidrocarburos. According to Los Tiempos, the government and YPFB itself warned of sanctions at the ANH "no matter who falls," a sign that the scope of the investigations could be considerable. The decision has immediate and visible consequences: truckers are waiting up to three days to refuel with diesel, and the presidential spokesperson admits an "excess demand" that he cannot precisely explain when it will end. The industrial sector is unequivocal on the matter: without diesel there is no production, and the blockades that have shaken the country in recent months —which, according to calculations from the Federación de Entidades Privadas de Cochabamba, in five months surpassed all the damage recorded in 2025, with losses estimated at $2.7 billion in earlier episodes— have left a mark that promises of stability cannot erase. Industrial entrepreneurs have been explicit: the fuel subsidy should not return, but the current shortage is a different form of the same problem.

Against that energy and institutional backdrop, the government is trying to advance a structural reform agenda whose centerpiece is the Investment Law. The text sent to the Asamblea Legislativa Plurinacional contemplates discounts of up to 80% on the Corporate Profits Tax on a conditional and temporary basis, along with new incentives to attract foreign capital without needing to amend the Constitution — a political constraint that the Paz government openly acknowledges as a limit on its room for maneuver. Four proposals are competing in the legislative debate, and the president announced he will engage with political parties to present the package of structural reforms, an unusual appeal to consensus that reflects both the ambition of the agenda and its fragilities. As analyst Karl Isakson noted, uncertainty blocks investment, and that blockage slows the economy more effectively than any decree.

On the monetary and exchange rate front, the picture is one of accelerated transition. Bolivia abandoned in record time a fixed exchange rate regime that had lasted fifteen years to adopt a managed regime with flexible float, and the BCB has set the dollar at Bs 11.66 for this Thursday —its sixth reduction since the regime change—, with the most recent quote standing at Bs 12.08 before this latest correction, according to El Deber. Economy Minister José Gabriel Espinoza has stated that the data show the downward trend of the dollar will continue, and the government attributes this movement to its stabilization measures. The BCB has set a ceiling of Bs 134 billion on the issuance of currency in circulation for 2026, while the legal reserve requirement will rise by 4.5 percentage points, a measure that will make credit more expensive and more selective at a time when banking profits have already fallen by 58% due to loan deferrals, according to Los Tiempos. Starting Friday, the government will enable withdrawals of up to $5,000 from the financial system, gradually broadening the lifting of the deposit freeze that in earlier stages had limited withdrawals to $1,000 and then to $3,000.

The technical agreement reached with the IMF, which includes measures with social impact according to Los Tiempos, provides an external credibility anchor that Bolivia urgently needs. Country risk has fallen below 500 points, Standard & Poor's has upgraded the sovereign rating, and the government reports a fiscal surplus in the first five months of 2026, reversing a trend of years. Bolivia also placed $1 billion in sovereign bonds on international markets and sealed a strategic alliance with CAF worth $3.1 billion, while the IDB committed up to $4.1 billion more. These numbers contrast, however, with an external debt exceeding $14.3 billion and inflation projections of up to 17% by year-end, according to eju.tv, a figure that would erode any real gains for Bolivian households.

The diplomatic-commercial agenda is moving in parallel. President Paz agreed with his Ecuadorian counterpart Daniel Noboa on a roadmap to deepen bilateral economic integration, the agenda with Peru is centered on port and rail logistics, and Tarija hosted an economic and commercial cooperation forum with China that underscores Beijing's interest in Bolivia's endowment of critical minerals —which cover 80% of the most globally demanded resources, according to Los Tiempos— including lithium, a sector that remains expectant ahead of a European Union visit.

What will determine the fate of these reforms in the coming weeks is the resolution of three simultaneous unknowns: whether the intervention of YPFB manages to restore the fuel supply chain without generating institutional paralysis within the company; whether the Investment Law secures enough political consensus to advance in the Legislative Assembly before pre-electoral uncertainty —with candidates already offering "urgent exits" from the crisis— paralyzes any deliberation; and whether the new managed exchange rate regime can absorb inflationary pressure without severely impacting the household basket, something the Executive itself publicly acknowledged when referring to the effects of Decree 5503.

**SOBOCE (not internationally listed)** — Sociedad Boliviana de Cemento warned about the economic impact of the possible enforcement of an arbitral ruling against it and claimed its right to effective judicial protection, according to Los Tiempos. The case represents a material risk for one of the country's most relevant industrial companies at a time when credit is becoming more expensive and domestic demand remains depressed.

**YPFB (state-owned, not listed)** — The Bolivian government intervened in Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales Bolivianos and announced its restructuring over corruption allegations, according to El Deber. The measure directly affects the hydrocarbons supply chain throughout the national territory and generates uncertainty about existing contracts with international operators in the gas sector.