Bolivian currency collapses 29 days straight as fuel shortages spark business revolt.

The boliviano has lost ground against the dollar for 29 consecutive sessions since President Rodrigo Paz's government abandoned the Bs 6.96 fixed exchange rate that had been in place for fifteen years, and that number — confirmed by the Banco Central de Bolivia — captures better than any other data point the magnitude of the rupture running through the Bolivian economy. But what is truly significant today is not the depreciation itself, but the collision between two forces moving in opposite directions: a government determined to project stability, and a productive fabric that, besieged simultaneously by fuel shortages and inflation, is beginning to lose patience.

The official exchange rate has climbed from Bs 10.24 at the start of the week to Bs 10.50 in just 24 hours, according to El Deber, while Economy Minister José Gabriel Espinoza insists that the dollar will stabilize below Bs 11 in the coming days and that no "overshoot" has occurred. The Instituto Boliviano de Comercio Exterior (IBCE) offers a more pragmatic reading: the flexible exchange rate simply "brings honesty to the economy," and the real challenge now is to attract foreign currency. The central bank, for its part, confirms that the banking system holds reserves in foreign currency, and Minister Espinoza stresses that 99.3% of loans are denominated in bolivianos, arguing that household and corporate debt should not be aggravated by the devaluation. It is a reassuring statistic in theory, but one that coexists with year-on-year inflation of 9.23% and cumulative inflation of 4.82% in the first half of 2026 — a figure that in Cochabamba reaches 5.28% according to business data cited by Los Tiempos, above the national average. Some private projections put year-end inflation as high as 17%, which would make 2026 Bolivia's most inflationary year in decades.

The fuel crisis is the other open front, and perhaps the most politically explosive. YPFB has officially acknowledged that distribution is not flowing normally and that it will carry out "additional nominations" in an attempt to eliminate the queues, though the responsible minister has been unable to offer a concrete date for their disappearance. Authorities admit the shortage will extend at least through the end of July. On the black market, the agricultural confederation Confeagro reports diesel selling for Bs 14 per liter, double the official price, while LPG canisters in Santa Cruz go for Bs 35 in neighborhood shops. The shortfall is not confined to diesel: queues have spread to gasoline and LPG, and foreign trade is racking up palpable damage, with the export recovery held back by fuel shortages and logistical friction with Chile, even forcing exporters to explore Yacuiba as an alternative export route. The government has decided to keep fuel prices frozen for six months, until January 2027, thereby ruling out a tariff adjustment that would have naturally accompanied the exchange-rate liberalization.

The private sector has responded with unusual intensity. Business leaders have called an emergency national summit in La Paz, are demanding a reactivation plan, and explicitly reject the mandatory deferral of utility payments, warning that it jeopardizes the operational continuity of firms. Bank profits have fallen 58% as a result of the loan deferrals, according to Los Tiempos. Regional governors are demanding a fiscal pact, greater investment, and autonomy. Transport operators have issued a 48-hour ultimatum for the government to meet and address the shortage. Cumulative losses from the 50 days of road blockades that preceded the current phase reach USD 2.7 billion according to some estimates, and the business sector puts that figure at more than Bs 14.545 billion when broader damages are included. Minister Espinoza himself has warned that growth could turn negative in 2026 due to the impact of the 47 days of conflict.

Against this backdrop, two pieces of news point to the government's longer-term strategy. Bolivia and Brazil have agreed to technical roundtables to expand the participation of Petrobras — whose shares trade on the São Paulo stock exchange and whose ADRs trade on the NYSE — in both the oil supply chain and the restructuring of YPFB, the state energy company. It is a sign that La Paz is looking for foreign capital and expertise to shore up a sector that has been in production decline for years. In parallel, Santa Cruz Governor Juan Pablo Velasco has floated the idea of finding a "new owner who will invest" in Boliviana de Aviación (BoA), rather than simply appointing a new general manager following the removal of the previous one, whose departure has stirred controversy. The president has also introduced a tax-relief bill for the guild sector, and the government is announcing the imminent arrival of some USD 3 billion in investment and financing, backed by the USD 3.1 billion strategic alliance with CAF and the USD 1 billion raised through international sovereign bonds.

What to watch in the coming days is whether the exchange rate does in fact stabilize below Bs 11 — the level the minister has set as a credibility anchor — or whether it continues to depreciate, which would test confidence in the new monetary policy. The evolution of the fuel queues and the government's response to the transport sector's ultimatums will determine whether social tensions escalate again. And the outcome of the business summit will be a thermometer of the degree of cohesion or fracture between the private sector and a government that presents itself as the architect of a new era of investment and reform, but has yet to make that narrative prevail over the day-to-day reality of shortage and uncertainty.

**Petrobras (NYSE: PBR)** — Bolivia and Brazil agreed to technical roundtables to expand the Brazilian state oil company's participation across the entire Bolivian hydrocarbons value chain, including the restructuring of YPFB. The agreement positions Petrobras as the central strategic partner in Bolivia's energy recovery, with direct implications for natural gas production and export in the region.

**Boliviana de Aviación / BoA (state-owned, not listed)** — The government removed the general manager of the state airline amid public controversy, with the Minister of Public Works denouncing "interests" behind the departure. The Governor of Santa Cruz is openly proposing that a private investor be sought to take control of the company, marking the first explicit debate on the privatization of a state-owned enterprise in Bolivia's new political phase.