The Government is projecting a scenario of "FX calm" for 2027, despite historical patterns showing strong dollarization during election years. In April, net foreign currency purchases by the public reached USD 2.36 billion, a figure significantly lower than the USD 6.5 billion acquired last September, ahead of the midterm elections, when an unprecedented intervention by the US Treasury was required to prevent a devaluation. Minister Luis Caputo stated at the Latam Economic Forum that next year will be "very calm," betting on an economic recovery that secures Javier Milei's reelection. The IMF aligns with this view, projecting growth of 3.5% this year and 4% in 2027, with inflation falling below 20%. Nevertheless, economists like Jorge Ávila warn that between 100 and 200 basis points of country risk are explained by fears of an eventual return of Kirchnerism.
Published: 05/31/2026 04:02
The president of the Argentine Institute of Finance Executives (IAEF), Pablo Miedziak, delivered a "very positive" assessment of the two and a half years of Javier Milei's administration, highlighting the drop in country risk from 2,500 to 500 basis points, the slowdown in inflation and FX stability. According to the executive, publicly listed Argentine companies have increased their value by approximately USD 40 billion during the Milei era. Miedziak noted that May would mark a turning point compared to the recent upward trend in inflation and rising delinquency, while signs of consumption recovery are beginning to emerge. The business leader made these statements ahead of the 43rd IAEF Annual Congress, which will be held at the Buenos Aires Convention Center with the President's attendance, under the theme "New global context: the challenge of consolidation."
Published: 05/31/2026 03:59
The Buenos Aires Ministry of Production, through the Directorate for the Defense of Consumer and User Rights, has filed charges against Mercado Libre for alleged abusive contractual clauses, in a case framed under the National Consumer Defense Law. The provincial agency recorded around 2,400 complaints against the company during the first four months of the year and granted it a 5-day period to present its defense and modify the contested clauses. If changes are not made, the company founded by Marcos Galperin could face a fine of $1.815 billion pesos. The case takes on political significance due to tensions between the government of Axel Kicillof and Galperin, an open supporter of Javier Milei's economic plan, while Mercado Libre rejected the accusations and argued that it has a low complaint rate relative to the volume of operations it processes.
Published: 05/31/2026 03:58
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange projected a 3% drop in wheat acreage for the 2026/27 season, while the Rosario Board of Trade estimated a larger cut of 12%, equivalent to 220,000 fewer hectares. The determining factor was the surge in international urea prices, which rose by more than 100% against just a 7% increase in grains, hitting peaks of USD 1,000 per ton before retreating to USD 830. The reduction in export taxes announced by the Government is unlikely to offset this impact on fertilization costs, according to sector analysts. In parallel, the potential of Vaca Muerta as a gas supplier for fertilizer production opens the door to investment announcements exceeding USD 4 billion, leveraging the country's energy resources and Atlantic export access.
Published: 05/31/2026 03:57
A report from Misión Productiva, based on data from the Superintendency of Occupational Risks (SRT), revealed that 554 of the 948 private economic subsectors —59% of the total— destroyed formal employment between November 2023 and February 2026, during Javier Milei's administration. Construction leads the losses with 81,295 fewer registered positions, followed by manufacturing industry with 76,556 job cuts and the transportation and storage sector with 61,107 fewer workers. Significant declines were also recorded in professional, scientific and technical services (-25,449 jobs) and in financial intermediation and insurance (-12,089 jobs). The document warns that labor deterioration cuts transversally across construction, industry, trade, services and even agriculture, configuring a widespread crisis that exceeds the sectors traditionally most sensitive to the economic cycle.
Published: 05/31/2026 03:56
**Fundar warns about the costs of adjustment and the need for more inclusive growth**
Guido Zack, director of the economics area at Fundar, argued that while the Government's initial decisions —reducing the fiscal deficit and correcting FX lag— pointed in the right direction, the magnitude of the shock was greater than anticipated, with a 120% devaluation that amplified inflationary impact and worsened social conditions for the most vulnerable sectors. The economist questioned the distribution of adjustment costs, noting that budget items for soup kitchens, disability and public hospitals were cut while the Personal Assets Tax rate was reduced and the Reibp was created, which freezes that tax for 15 years. Zack considered it a wasted opportunity not to have temporarily raised export duties, a measure that would have generated additional fiscal resources and moderated the pass-through of the devaluation to prices. In his assessment of the current situation, he argued that reserve accumulation is insufficient as a goal and that growth must extend to the entire formal sector of the economy.
Published: 05/31/2026 03:55
Copper mining is shaping up as a potential engine for reducing the tax burden in Argentina, particularly the Gross Revenue Tax, considered one of the most regressive levies in the fiscal system. Global demand for the mineral is set to double between 2022 and 2042, going from 22 to 44 million tons per year, driven by the energy transition, electromobility and the development of data centers for artificial intelligence. Projects such as Vicuña, Pachón or Taca Taca could produce 300,000 tons of fine copper per year, which would require extracting more than 250,000 tons of mineralized rock daily, generating significant employment and associated activity. In this context, the enactment of RIGI —which reduces the Income Tax by 10 points— appears as a scheme that could be extended to other investments, provided that large capital commitments deliver the fiscal stability needed to sustain a generalized tax cut.
Published: 05/31/2026 03:55
Argentine inflation slowed to 2.6% monthly in April, accumulating 32.4% over the last twelve months, marking a break in the acceleration streak that began in 2025 amid electoral uncertainty. Unlike previous episodes, the current disinflation has not been accompanied by a sustained collapse in activity, but rather coexists with signs of economic recovery, fiscal consolidation and improvement on the external front. The analysis posits that Argentina is undergoing a regime change, with conditions for a growth cycle driven by investment and exports, rather than the historical model of consumption financed with monetary issuance. The catch-up potential is significant after more than a decade of stagnation, compounded by a revaluation of sovereign risk that could facilitate access to financing.
Published: 05/31/2026 03:54
The Javier Milei Government maintains its strategy of prioritizing macroeconomic ordering as the basis for recovery, relying on fiscal discipline, FX stabilization and cleanup of the Central Bank. Initial results include slowing inflation, financial fiscal surplus and greater predictability in public accounts, advances that international markets are watching closely. The approach aligns with the principles of economists such as Friedman, Sargent and Lucas Jr., focused on the role of expectations and monetary dominance over fiscal dominance. However, the main political risk lies in the gap between macroeconomic improvements and social perception, since households and businesses still do not perceive concrete results in their daily lives that would allow them to sustain consumption, investment and political support for the program.
Published: 05/31/2026 03:54
**Carry trade in 2026: positive returns in the first stretch, but with tighter prospects toward year-end**
Between December 31, 2025 and May 26, 2026, carry trade strategies in Argentina delivered positive results measured in CCL dollars, according to a report from consultancy Quantum. Returns ranged from 2.4% for investments in GD35 global bonds to 20% in Boncer, while Tamar-rate deposits yielded 14.3%. In that period, inflation accumulated 14.7%, CER rose 15% and the official and free dollar fell 3.5% and 2.2% in nominal terms, respectively.
Looking at the second half, projections become more austere: in a scenario of market continuity, with Tamar at 22.5% annualized and CCL closing at $1,726, carry would yield just 1.1% on Tamar deposits and would generate losses of 0.9% on Lecap. In the divergent scenario, by contrast, CCL would climb to $2,012 and country risk would stand at 650 basis points, compared to the 400 expected in the base case.
*Digest automatically generated on 2026-05-31*
Published: 05/30/2026 23:05
